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SLU/YouGov Poll: Amendment 3 Falls to a Dead Heat While Missourians Back Protections for the Initiative Petition Process by a 27-Point Margin

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Trump approval underwater in SLU/YouGov Poll for the first time; Kehoe, state legislature hit all-time low approval ratings.

ST. LOUIS - The August 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll surveyed 900 likely Missouri voters about their opinions regarding the 2026 election, ballot initiatives and amendments, data centers, and matters considered by the Missouri state government.

Approval Ratings

Ballot Initiatives and Amendments

Issues in the 2026 Election

2026 Election Outlook

Education

The margin of error for the full survey sample is ± 4.09%. Top-line survey results can be found here. Results with demographic and party cross-tabs can be found here.

Missouri Voters Increasingly Disapprove of President Trump

Since the February 2026 Poll, President Donald Trump’s approval among likely voters fell to 48%, with 52% disapproving, his lowest mark recorded in the SLU/YouGov Poll. The decline was steepest among independent voters: 44% approved of Trump’s performance in February 2026, but just 33% did in August, while disapproval among independents rose from 54% to 66%.

“Trump’s decline may reflect the war in Iran, the economy, and the cost of living,” said Steven Rogers, Ph.D., director of the SLU/YouGov Poll and professor of political science at Saint Louis University. “Fifty-three percent of Missouri voters told us the decision to go to war was wrong, and only 21% of Missouri voters rate the national economy as excellent or good.”

The decline in Trump approval in Missouri mirrors national trends: YouGov’s national tracker of registered voters put Trump’s approval at 42% and disapproval at 56% on February 23, 2026, almost the same day our own February survey closed, and by August 31, 2026, national approval had fallen to 39% while disapproval had risen to 60%.

“Our SLU/YouGov Poll shows a similar, consistent decline in approval scores for Trump, although, as expected in the red state of Missouri, his decline in approval ratings has not been as dramatic,” said Kenneth Warren, Ph.D.,  associate director of the SLU/YouGov Poll and professor emeritus at Saint Louis University.

Missouri on the Wrong Track

Thirty-nine percent of voters told the SLU/YouGov Poll that Missouri is headed in the right direction, down 9 points since February, while 48% say the state is on the wrong track (margin of error ±5.67%). Views of the state economy soured over the same period, with 25% of voters rating Missouri’s economy as excellent or good, down 7 points since February. 

Voters’ evaluations of Jefferson City Republicans reflect these trends. Governor Mike Kehoe’s approval fell 10 points since February to a new low of 40%, while disapproval rose 9 points to 49%. The Missouri State Legislature, where Republicans hold a supermajority, saw a similar decline, with approval dropping 9 points to 42%, also an all-time low in the SLU/YouGov Poll, while disapproval rose 7 points to 49%. Both declines also come after the defeat of Amendments 4 and 5 on the August primary ballot.

“When voters are unhappy about the direction of the state and its economy, and reject the governor’s and legislature’s priorities at the ballot box, those rebukes may help explain why the their approval numbers moved together,” said Rogers.

Amendment 3: Too Close to Call

The August 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll suggests that Missouri voters are now divided on Amendment 3, the proposed constitutional amendment that places more restrictions on abortion, partly undoing the constitutional amendment approved by voters in 2024. The SLU/YouGov Poll found that 43% of voters support Amendment 3 in 2026, 44% oppose it, and 13% are not sure, down from a 50% to 39% lead in February 2026, a 12-point swing in the net margin.

“The decline in support crossed party lines,” said Rogers. “Republican support fell 7 points since February to 65%, with opposition rising 3 points to 21%. Democrats remained opposed, with opposition in August moving to 68% from 66% in February, while support declined slightly to 20%.”

Amendment 6: Support Ahead with a 27-Point Margin

Amendment 6 proposes to reform the initiative petition process and make it harder for state lawmakers to change or repeal a law after Missouri voters have approved it at the ballot box. Currently, if voters pass a law through the initiative petition process, as opposed to a constitutional amendment, the legislature can amend or repeal it with simple majority votes in the state House and Senate and the governor’s signature. Amendment 6 would prevent that by requiring 80% support of each legislative chamber to refer the change to voters, followed by another statewide vote. 

The SLU/YouGov Poll found that 48% of Missouri voters support Amendment 6, 21% oppose it, and 32% are not sure. More voters supported than opposed Amendment 6 across all regions of Missouri, all age and income groups, and among Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

“Missourians have evidently not been happy with the legislature repeatedly trying to overturn the voice of voters who had approved ballot initiatives,” said Warren.

Voters “Not Sure” About Proposition A (Ballot Language)

A “yes” vote on Proposition A would uphold the congressional district map the legislature passed in 2025, which would likely shift Missouri’s congressional delegation from a 6-2 to a 7-1 Republican advantage. A “no” vote on Proposition A would overturn this 7-1 map. In August 2026, the SLU/YouGov Poll asked voters about Proposition A using the same ballot language they would see in November, and 35% of voters said they would vote yes, 32% no, and 33% were not sure.

The high share of “not sure” voters may reflect confusion about the ballot language itself more than indecision about the map. To explore this possibility, SLU/YouGov looked at the 305 respondents who answered both the February and August surveys. Among those who saw a fuller explanation of the state legislature’s actions and said they “supported the state legislature adopting this new map of congressional districts” in February, only 48% said they would vote yes on Proposition A in the August poll, while 19% flipped to no and 33% became unsure. Among those who had opposed the map in February, 53% stuck with opposition in August, but 20% flipped to yes and 27% became unsure. Altogether, the number of these repeat respondents who were unsure roughly tripled, from 33 to 101, once they saw the referendum’s actual wording instead of a description of what the legislature did.

“Missouri voters are likely somewhat divided on whether to approve the state legislature’s new map,” said Rogers. “However, both campaigns, at least early on, will need to focus on educating voters about what a ‘yes’ and ‘no’ vote actually means, since our poll suggests some confusion amongst the electorate.”

Opposition to Local Data Centers Grows by 17 Percent

Sixty-eight percent of voters oppose a new data center being built in their local community, and just 17% support it, a 17-point increase in opposition since February 2026 (margin of error ±5.7–5.9%). The same voters oppose a data center being built in the state of Missouri by a narrower margin: 55% opposed and 29% supportive, compared with 44% opposed and 32% supportive in February.

A question-order experiment offers a clue as to why opposition to data centers in the state of Missouri is lower than to data centers in voters’ local community. The August 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll randomly assigned voters to be asked about the local or the state of Missouri data center first. When the state of Missouri question came first, 66% of voters opposed it. Among voters asked the state of Missouri question after the local question, 55% opposed it, an 11-point difference. Opposition to the local data center, meanwhile, barely moved: 68% when asked first, 70% when asked second.

“Once voters had already registered opposition to a data center in their own community, they became somewhat more accepting of one built elsewhere in the state,” said Rogers. “This may reflect a ‘not-in-my-backyard’ sentiment, where Missouri voters are more comfortable with development so long as it’s someone else’s community.”

Tight State Elections

When asked about the upcoming race for Missouri State Auditor, 45% of voters would vote for incumbent Republican Scott Fitzpatrick, 43% for Democrat Quentin Wilson, and 12% are not sure (margin of error ±5.92%), a far closer margin than Missouri Republicans have posted in recent down-ballot statewide races. In the August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll, every Republican candidate for statewide office below governor led by at least 13 points, ranging from a 13-point lead for Attorney General to an 18-point lead for Secretary of State. Republicans have held all six statewide offices in Missouri since Democrat Nicole Galloway, the last Democrat to hold statewide office, left the Auditor’s seat in January 2023.

“It is not that our poll shows Fitzpatrick losing, but that we would expect an incumbent Republican holding statewide office in the deep red state of Missouri to be way ahead of his Democratic challenger,” said Warren.

In the 2026 state House elections, Democrats hope to break the Republicans’ supermajority. The August SLU/YouGov Poll asked likely voters, using a generic-ballot format, how they would vote in their local state House district; 48% said Republican and 44% said Democratic, with 8% not sure. Independents favored Democratic candidates, 42% to 36%. It is important to note that this is not a district-by-district forecast, and results vary by region: in St. Louis, Democrats lead 60% to 35%, while in southwest Missouri, Republicans lead 65% to 30%.

“Reflecting the role national politics plays in state elections, our polling and statistical analyses show that a Missouri voter who strongly disapproves of Trump is roughly sixteen percentage points more likely to vote for a Democratic state House candidate than one who strongly approves of him. Voters’ opinions of their own state legislature and of Governor Kehoe matter too, but only about a third as much,” said Rogers. “This lines up with the research I conducted in 2023 for my book, Accountability in State Legislatures, which shows presidential approval carries about three times the weight that approval of the state legislature does in these races. Voters are punishing their state lawmakers for Trump’s actions, even though state lawmakers do not control what Trump does.”

Approval of the U.S. Congress

The U.S. Congress remains deeply unpopular with Missouri voters, with just 25% approving of its performance, down 8 points since the February 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll, and 68% disapproving, up 5 points. The generic ballot for the U.S. House tells a similar story. When asked how they would vote in a U.S. House election today, 48% of voters said they would back the Republican candidate and 44% the Democratic candidate, down from a 15-point Republican lead (53% to 38%) in February 2026.

Missouri’s two Republican U.S. Senators are also less popular than they were in February but remain more popular than Congress as a whole. Forty-seven percent of voters approve of Senator Josh Hawley’s job performance, down 6 points from a high of 53% in February 2026, while disapproval rose 4 points to 44%. Senator Eric Schmitt’s approval also fell 6 points to 44%, down from his own all-time high of 50% in February, with disapproval rising 5 points to 41%.

Affordability Worries, Including Access to Childcare

Heading into the 2026 election, at least 59% of voters are worried about affording health care (69%), food and groceries (66%), gas (66%), utilities (62%), and property taxes (59%) (margin of error ±5.92%). Rural voters express the most worry of any region: 77% are concerned about affording health care, compared to 64% of voters in urban areas.

“Affordability concerns go beyond lower-income households,” said Rogers. “Seventy-three percent of voters earning less than $50,000 a year are worried about affording both food and gas, but even among voters earning more than $100,000, 55% are still worried about food and 62% about gas.”

The August 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll reveals childcare costs are part of that picture. Fifty-four percent of voters agree that access to affordable childcare is a problem in their community, and 65% say the Missouri state government should help expand access to affordable childcare. Voters with children currently in school feel this most: 67% of such parents say childcare access is a problem in their community, and 80% want the state to help expand access, compared to 51% and 60% among voters without kids in school.

These poll findings arrive as a childcare tax credit package has passed the Missouri House four years running but stalled in the Senate (e.g., HB 2409 in the 2026 session). The SLU/YouGov Poll found broad support among likely Missouri voters for using the tax code to address the cost: 73% agree that businesses that help pay for their employees’ childcare should receive a state tax credit, and 61% support a similar credit for childcare businesses that build or expand their facilities. Voters extend that same support to Missouri’s own school employees: 70% would back a state-funded paid parental leave program for public school staff, while just 14% are opposed.

School Ratings Slip While Voters Continue to Back A-F Report Cards

The August SLU/YouGov Poll also found that voters’ ratings of Missouri’s public schools have declined since February. Thirty-eight percent of voters rate public schools in their community as excellent or good, down 6 points since February, while just 22% say the same about schools statewide, also down 6 points. To better evaluate schools, voters broadly support a proposal for the state to publish annual A–F report card grades for public schools and districts, based on state test results and graduation rates, which largely match findings from the February 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll.

As children went back to school, the SLU/YouGov Poll also asked Missouri voters about school vaccination requirements. At least 77% support requiring the MMR, polio, and DTaP vaccines for public school attendance, with 10% opposed to a measles, mumps, and rubella requirement, 12% opposed to polio, and 14% opposed to DTaP. Voters are far more divided over newer or more contested vaccines: 47% support requiring HPV vaccination, with 37% opposed, while just 33% support requiring COVID-19 vaccination, with 57% opposed.

“These opposition numbers come at a moment when Missouri’s own child vaccination rates have been slipping,” said Rogers. “Missouri’s kindergarten measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination rate has fallen for a sixth consecutive year, according to the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.”

Methodology and Funding

YouGov interviewed 900 likely Missouri voters between August 13 and August 24, 2026. The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 3.1 million United States residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys. Using their gender, age, race, and education, YouGov weighted the set of survey respondents to known characteristics of Missouri voters from the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records. 

YouGov conducted a review and updated its methodology in 2026. The revised weighting methodology makes two improvements. First, it uses more recent demographic benchmarks for Missouri registered voters, which YouGov finished processing after the February 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll was completed. Second, it accounts for additional demographic characteristics and relationships among them. To align the February 2026 poll with the more detailed approach that will be used going forward, YouGov has updated the weights for the February poll and results are posted to slu.edu/poll. While the original weights were valid, these updates should improve the representativeness of the results and comparability across waves.

The underlying survey responses and sample have not changed. However, the revised weights result in slight changes to some survey estimates and the margin of error. This is because more detailed weighting can increase variation in the influence individual respondents have on the results. The revised results supersede the previously published version and should be used when comparing this study with subsequent waves.

The majority of funding for the SLU/YouGov Poll has been through the PRiME Center in SLU’s School of Education and SLU’s College of Arts and Sciences. Additional grant funding from the Department of Energy supports this poll. For fuller details about funding for the SLU/YouGov Poll, visit slu.edu/poll. 

About Saint Louis University

Founded in 1818, Saint Louis University is one of the nation’s oldest and most prestigious Catholic research institutions. Rooted in Jesuit values and its pioneering history as the first university west of the Mississippi River, SLU offers more than 13,300 students a rigorous, transformative education that challenges and prepares them to make the world a better place. As a nationally recognized leader in research and innovation, SLU is an R1 research university, advancing groundbreaking, life-changing discoveries that promote the greater good.

About YouGov

Saint Louis University has partnered with YouGov to conduct its biannual survey of Missouri voters. YouGov conducts surveys for multiple academic institutions and is the primary, trusted survey firm for media organizations, including CBS News and The Economist. FiveThirtyEight (538) ranked YouGov as one of the top pollsters in the country, with respect to its strong commitment to accuracy and transparency in polling. In September 2024, The New York Times reported “Only YouGov, long at the cutting edge of [online] polling, is still producing reasonably accurate results with [online] panels.”

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